Sports Montage

For most baseball fans, one can’t help but notice the effect that weather has had on the first month of the 2007 MLB season. To date, there have been more than 30 postponements to start off the year, thanks to week-long torrential downpours and massive snowstorms that would be better suited to an End of Days prophecy than to your neighborhood weather report.

Unfortunately, this crazy weather has also seemed to have a wacky effect on bats and arms all across the league. On every team in the majors, up has become down, left has become right, and bad has become good (and vice versa). How else can you explain anomalies like Jimmy Rollins’ 9 (yes, 9) April homeruns, Manny Ramirez hitting .160, and Brett Myers in the Phils’ bullpen? This can’t go on forever, can it?

For most early-season anomalies, it obviously can’t. Manny Ramirez is a career .313, a sure-fire bet for the Hall of Fame. Before last season, Jimmy Rollins never had more than 14 homers in a season, and he’s on pace to quadruple that mark. Brett Myers is arguably one of the best starters in the NL East. While most fans are ready to hurl themselves off of cliffs, the more enlightened of us are patiently biding our time until things regress to their respective means.

That said, some of these early-season hijinks that we’ve witnessed so far might end up being part of a season-long trend. Let’s delve further to find out what’s real and what’s not:

NL

What’s Real: The Nationals’ terrible start.

I was going to say that this team is worse than a team full of Ron Belliards (which is pretty awful).. until I realized that Ron Belliard actually starts for this team already. To make it worse, he’s one of the Nats’ best players, implying that this team is WORSE than a team full of Ron Belliards. How depressing. I can’t figure out how the worst team in the league, which plays in the worst park in the league, would draw any fans at all. Can someone tell me how this situation is better than the one that the Expos had in Montreal?

If the GM of this horrendous team had any brains, he could try using the stadium’s unreasonable dimensions (335 down the line, 380 to the gaps, 410 to center) to his advantage and pick up some cheap fly-ball pitchers and/or some decent wheels in the outfield. But of course, the GM has no brains, which is why this team is so terrible. Expect 65 wins at very best.

What’s Not: The Braves’ rise to 1st place.

Let’s face it. With a 17-10 record at the time of this post, the Atlanta Braves are on pace to win 100 games. No chance. Riding unbelievably hot starts from Chipper Jones (10 HR already), Jeff Francoeur (25 RBI), and Tim Hudson (and his 1.40 April ERA?!), this team is truly living on borrowed time at the top of the NL East. None of these trends are sustainable for any significant period of time. Things won’t get any easier when the Phillies and Marlins start playing to their expectations and capabilities.
Despite their torrid start, look for prolonged slumps by the oft-injured Chipper Jones, an aging Tim Hudson, and watch out for a monumental collapse by the much-ballyhooed Jeff Francoeur. (Memo to starting pitchers: STOP THROWING PITCHES TO HIT, he will strike HIMSELF out.) Expect a 75-80 win season.

AL

What’s Real: The Yankees last place collapse.

In most situations, one would be discouraged from rejoicing in the misery of others… unless you’re talking about the Yankees, of course. Despite a record-setting April for Alex Rodriguez, an excellent first month for Jason Giambi, and consistent production from the premium middle-infield tandem of Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter, the Yankees are still struggling in last place.

Much to George Steinbrenner’s surprise, firing Joe Torre, the conditioning coach, the bat boys, or even his own son-in-law won’t change the fact that Brian Cashman put together a team that is designed to fail. Poor performances are pretty easy to predict when a team fails to assemble a legitemate pitching staff in a division full of surprisingly powerful offenses. Having an aging offensive corps and AAAA-level bullpen won’t help, either.

Small-market fans and Yankee-haters all over the country can revel in the fact that this team will not rise above 3rd place in 2007. Look for the Red Sox to take this division fairly easily, with the Blue Jays and D-Rays putting up a better fight that most would expect.

What’s Not: Moneyball’s triumphant return to the postseason.

Shortly after the turn of the century, magical things began to happen out in the Bay Area for the local AL team. Despite a miniscule payroll, a borderline-condemned ballpark, and a general lack of star-power, the Oakland A’s began to win games. A LOT of games. Enough games to start making the playoffs. Such a development was considered big news in most sports circles, especially when considering the wildly unbalanced economic environment that the MLB operated in. By shattering the time-old adage that “big bucks won championships”, the A’s made enough noise to raise a true cult following of stat-heads and baseball purists alike, while making the playoffs 4 out of the last 7 years.
Despite a fairly slow start, the A’s continue to be a trendy pick to win the 2007 AL West title. They are only 2 games out of first place heading into May, despite injuries to some of their best players: Rich Harden, Mike Piazza, and Nick Swisher, to name a few. The red-hot Dan Johnson, a recent call-up and one of the heroes of the 2005 A’s squad, is leading the charge against some of the AL West’s best. Dan Haren is pitching like his last name should be Koufax. The A’s bullpen is as great as ever. The list goes on and on.

But let’s cut out all of this “feel-good” crap. As much as I love the A’s, it is only May. And as great as the incomporable Dan Johnson might be, he can’t compensate for the fact that the A’s are starting one of the worst offensive outfields in majors. As great as Haren has been pitching, he can’t pitch every day. Hell, their best pitcher, Harden, can’t seem to pitch on ANY day. It’s only a matter of time before we see a lot of these players fall back down to earth, and a lot of the ones already on “earth” fall into graves. Until Rich Harden can put together a season of 30 starts or more, Mike Piazza finds a fountain of youth, and the A’s make some REALLY big-name deals, this team just doesn’t have the talent to survive a season-long battle for the division title with the Anaheim Angels. To make things worse, thanks to the two-horse race in the AL Central, the A’s probably won’t have enough wins to contend for the wild-card either.

Expect 85 wins and a hardy “Better luck next year!” from yours truly.